CLIMATE MIGRATION
WHEN NATIONS TRAVEL ON PRESSURE
True story. In the mid-20th century, a man living in a coastal city did extensive research to determine the safest place to build his retirement home. He considered crime, culture, weather, natural disaster potential, and weather extremes. And, yes, rising sea levels. He was, in a way, a proactive climate refugee.
It was actually right around that time that people began being forced from their homes due to a changing planet. In the South Pacific, the Marshall Islands were the site of dozens of nuclear bomb tests by the U.S. in the 1940s and 50s. Poisonous fallout forced many to flee, but that’s another story.
It was also the beginning of a mass exodus to escape an encroaching ocean. Inhabitants fled to nearby island nations and Hawaii, and on to the mainland U.S., where about 30,000 now live. Some 42,000 remain, clinging to their shrinking homeland.
Overwhelmingly, those most impacted by climate change are the ones least responsible for impacts. We’ve all heard that. But a fast-growing segment is in places that have lost control over their environmental footprint; China, India, and the Southwest U.S. are standouts.
Across the globe, people are on the move to greener pastures, and at least 22 million have already been displaced. Where are they going? Unlike the wealthy retiree, most will be making desperate decisions.
A prime example is the northward migration from Central America. Climate warning does not bring singular challenges. It is a disruption of nature’s balance. El Nino’s cycle of drought and floods has ramped up, and food shortages are severe. Disease is on the rise. Desperate, they pack what they can carry and begin a grueling journey. For many, it will end in death, detention, or denied entry.
ProPublica and The New York Times Magazine teamed up to model the potential movement of climate refugees across international borders.
The scenarios consider how governments are responding to climate change and immigration. Those decisions may literally determine mankind’s fate. As the potential playbook goes from bad to worse, the numbers are staggering, and we don’t have to look very far ahead to find them.
According to the report;
In 2025, if people are still allowed to move fairly freely around the world, the flow of humanity will be driven by food insecurity from rural areas to big cities. Urbanization will be overwhelming. In the Americas, the wave will push steadily northward. The U.S. will see about 700,000 migrants that year, growing to 1.5 million annually by 2050.
If the U.S. turns people back, and Central America’s economic growth, predictably, slows, people will be forced back to the rural areas where the climate will be even warmer and dryer than now. Birthrates will rise and a surging population will fall into deep poverty and hunger.
It’s a scenario that could easily play out around the world.
What is the answer? It has to be about more than open or closed borders. What are the immigration policies where you live? How do they need to change (they undoubtedly do) and who will lead the way?
