PANAMA CANAL DROUGHT 2/3

WHEN A MAJOR SHIP TRAFFIC JAM HITS THE ROAD

It’s not hard to imagine a shortage of anything anymore. We’ve all been there. And if the pandemic taught us anything, it’s the vulnerability of our supply chain. Most of us are neither willing nor able to be self-sustainable, or do without.

I’ll say it again - we have dug ourselves a deep, and now problematic, hole of dependence on global trade. Off-shore sourcing used to make sense. And just as we were coming out of logistical grid lock, finding solutions in fast-tracked automation, drought tipped the vital Panama Canal into crisis mode. No relief is in sight.

Faster shipping, lower prices, and somewhere in its 109-year history, the realization of a major reduction in environmental impacts, with 8,000 miles shaved off a global trade route.

So, what are we looking at as the canal reduces capacity to preserve water supplies?

What if it closes?

Don’t expect to see massive container ships plying the treacherous Cape Horn route, adding risk, and weeks, to their journeys. Plan B is playing out primarily in the U.S., where over-the-road shipping is poised to pick up some of the slack.

About 73% of goods eastbound through the canal are headed to U.S. ports, to be distributed mainly along the densely populated eastern seaboard. Ships are now starting to divert to west coast ports, to offload onto trains and trucks (mostly) for a 3,000 mile, cross-country trek.

The spotlight will be on economic impacts, but the thought of the increase in emissions is horrifying.

Let’s do a little math. We’re talking about 9,800 ships annually. Each carries up to 24,000 20-foot containers. That’s 235 million in total, or well over 100 million tandem tractor trailer loads.

Of course, western ports could not handle that entire volume, but impacts could still be catastrophic – not just emissions, but to the aging road infrastructure, traffic volumes and quality of life.

Also consider that there are fewer than three million tractor trailers on the road, which also begs the question of the viability of Plan B.

What will Plan C, D, etc., look like?

Here’s a for instance. In Mexico, the government is working on a $2.8 billion plan to reactivate a century-old rail line at the shortest point between its coasts. It’s capacity is estimated at only 10% of goods that make the canal trek, but that can mean a full schedule of, at best, a mix of diesel and electric locomotives.

The country is calling it a long-term climate change strategy. Good intentions and self-regulation aside, like many countries, Mexico has a comprehensive framework of environmental regulations, but struggles to enforce them. Sustainable Governance Indicators scores it 4.4/10 on its overall environmental stance. The U.S. scores a 5.3.

There are lots of scenarios to unpack, and not all are potentially negative.

What if this leads us, as the pandemic did, to thinking differently, and more urgently?

Stoppages in production of products requiring semiconductors, among them cars, electronics, renewable energy, health care equipment - prompted a rethink about the benefits of importing those and other components.

Are smaller circles now the answer?

BABYLONIANS

THE ANCIENT LOGISTICS OF BABYLON

When we look at humankind's track record for innovation, the Babylonians keep showing up as having created ingenious solutions to complex problems.

Their society remains fascinating because they were coming up with advanced and creative answers much as we do today, only they did it 4,000 years ago, without the help of modern technology. 

The Babylonians were impactful to humankind's history because they possessed a unique quality; anticipation. They prepared for adversity and, in doing so, found ways to transform complex problems into profitable solutions.

If you look at where Babylon was located, in what is now Iraq, it seems inconceivable that anyone could have lived in that barren wasteland, with scorching heat and an unforgiving rocky desert that stretches as far as the eye can see. This is not arable land, and yet, this entire region is known as the Fertile Crescent. That's because every spring, and again in Autumn, the Tigris and Euphrates rivers inundate the land and cover it in fertile silt.

There are other regions in the world that enjoy a similar springtime phenomenon; Egypt and the Nile, the Ganges in India and the Mekong River in Vietnam, yet Babylon managed to capitalize on it thousands of years before anyone else did,  by developing the world's first logistics network.

As anyone growing up around agriculture knows, farming is messy, with muddy roads leading to essential facilities  around the farm. In Babylon, the struggle was worse, with no real roads. All of that rich silty soil that came from the river could not be reached, planted, or harvested on a commercial scale, that is, until the Babylonians invented the paved …

PANAMA CANAL DROUGHT 1/3

FIRST SIGNS OF CLIMATE MEGA IMPACT ON GLOBAL SHIPPING

The iconic shortcut of the Panama Canal was about convenience, but became an environmental solution ahead of its time. Now, it is falling victim to climate change issues it organically pushed back against.

The manmade cut through the narrow Isthmus of Panama was an obvious choice, not just for the 8,000 miles it cut from trade routes. As a rainforest region and the fifth wettest country, Panama’s watershed system provides the massive amounts of freshwater needed to fill canal locks.

Maintaining water levels in Lake Gatun, which feeds the locks, was not a problem when the canal opened in 1914, or for much of a century that followed. As ships grew in size and number to feed global supply chain demand, increasing capacity became a priority. Vessels with towering stacks of cargo containers were making the passage with as little as five feet of clearance on either side, threatening safety and the structure itself. A critical expansion project was completed in 2017.

A trip through now requires up to 55 million gallons of fresh water, not returned to the lake, butwashed out to sea with each ship. That’s an enormous draw on natural resources, but was workable, until; an epic drought.

After two decades of dry conditions, the last rainy season set off new alarms when it failed to doit’s usual job of refilling the lake. In August, average vessel wait times increased by about half, with hundreds of ships lined up at both ends for an average of nine days.

Since 2016, the Autoridad del Canal de Panamá – the Panama Canal Authority - has issued reactive draft restrictions, reducing allowed cargo weights to ration water. It’s down to only 32 vessels every 24 hours.Blame the triple whammy of the naturally occurring El Niño climate pattern, climate warming and rainfall 30-50% below normal. The last two years are the driest in the 143 years Panama hasbeen keeping track. And Gatun Lake is evaporating faster than ever in the rising heat.

In the last 25 years, major El Niño events have risen significantly – to the point where authorities are having unprecedented discussions about turning the largest ships away.

And what if the canal were to shut down completely?

We’ve dug ourselves a deep hole in our appetite for and dependence on global trade. The supply chain issues of the COVID-19 pandemic were a wake up call for everyone, from consumers unable to buy toilet paper to manufacturers scrambling for semiconductors. That crisis rolled over into the next oneIn terms of timing, this seems like a smaller version of the climate change crisis.

Can we enact enough change quickly enough to avoid major catastrophe?

Is the solution in the trend toward smaller resource circles?

BABYLONIANS

THE TOWER OF BABYLON

As long as 6,000 years ago, people living in Mesopotamia, what is now  Iraq, were the first to master a new type of technology - writing.

That meant thoughts and ideas that people could only tell each other could be documented and expanded upon. Writing gave birth to the study of mathematics and astronomy, the first calendar and contracts, stories and religious texts. It unleashed a torrent of innovation that the growth enjoyed in one ancient culture, Babylon, is still evident today. 

The writing system devised by the Sumarians who came before was called Cuneiform. Its characters were wedge-shaped impressions  made in wet clay tablets using a reed. It is poetic that the same clay the Babylonians later used to advance their intellect also comprised the bricks that built their empire. 

A traveler approaching Babylon, a great city by the 6th century BCE, would have seen an enormous, 97-meter high wall guarding the city - 24 meters thick and 90 meters long. Behind that wall, a giant manmade mountain rose 92 meters into the sky, shining bright white in the desert sun.

These structures were possible thanks to the invention of baked clay bricks that could carry a far heavier load than the mud bricks that were common at the time. The Babylonians used sun-dried clay in almost everything they built, from roads and homes to entire temple complexes, including that soaring structure, known as a ziggurat.

Their architectural feats are …

EVERY FORK IN THE TRAIL

JAMES EKLUND - with greater awareness comes opportunity.

Climate change has not exactly snuck up on us, but it can no longer be denied. With greater awareness comes opportunity.

Where do we go from here?

Policymakers, stakeholders, innovators and advocates in the battle against climate changes impacts are working all the angles. James Eklund brings all those perspectives. He describes himself as a “ranching water lawyer,” and there is no better way to put it. His defining moments came as a little kid, riding horseback on the Norse Sky Ranch with his grandfather, learning a basic of successful ranching; water management. Five generations ago, in 1888, intrepid Norwegians Ole and Mary Gunderson, immigrated to that Rocky Mountains homestead in Plateau Valley in western Colorado. While their descendants grew it to more than 8,000 acres, its legacy of grass-fed beef and land stewardship endured.

Remaining true to those roots, a Stetson-wearing Eklund is still riding the range, and is not surprised to find himself at the Epicenter one of the world’s biggest water crises. He spent years working in the public sector, as legal counsel to former Governor John Hickenlooper and assistant attorney general, specializing in interstate and international water issues. Appointed director of the Colorado Water Conservation Board, he oversaw writing of the Colorado Water Plan, a framework to provide resources for a collaboration of projects around water development and conservation.

It has been hailed as the “gold standard” for others to follow.

Colorado is in a tricky position. Its namesake river’s headwaters are just north of Denver in the Continental Divide, but the demand for its water and the power produced from it increases dramatically in the massive watershed to the southwest and into Mexico. It feeds Lake Powell in Arizona and Lake Mead in Nevada, and sustains 40 million people in seven states and 50 Native American tribes……

SCIENCE FAIRE DE LA VOILE

INNOVATION DOES NOT OFTEN GO ON A JOURNEY, OR BECOME A MOVEMENT UNTO ITSELF.

When a floating laboratory pulls into port, its cloak of gleaming solar panels, soaring wind towers and twin hulls making it appear to float, it commands attention. And that is as much the point as the experimentation.

Energy Observer is a laboratory for ecological transformation, with an overall mission to push back the limits of zero-emission technologies. Its directives are to accelerate the transition of cutting-edge,resilient,zero-carbon energy systems and raise awareness at the same, and do it all in an unrelentingly hostile environment, on a remarkable and historic seven-year, around the world ocean voyage.

At every major port-of-call, an exhibition village pops-up dockside. EO’s crew of engineers and researchers connects with locals by showcasing their own work alongside that of local innovators, and engaging with those pioneering climate solutions in their own regions. Visitors are also offered a look at major organizations that specialize in hydrogen technology development and environmental protection, like the International Maritime Organization (IMO) and UNESCO.

Now, six years in, with lots of data, experiences, success stories and identified room for improvement, it’s the optimum time to look back at where it’s been, and consider all that has happened in the world since it set out in spring 2017.

Less than a year prior, climate change was just getting real, global attention with the signing of the Paris Agreement at the UN’s COP21…..

PLUG AND PLAY

SILENT RUNNINGS

Imagine powering across a sparkling blue lake, hearing only the whoosh of the water and the smell of fresh air. Or always being in “stealth mode,” sneaking up on the fish.

A second electric daycruiser from X Shore carries through strikingly clean lines that are the definition of Scandinavian design and lend it maximum hull efficiency, with a combination of glass and carbon fiber that strikes a balance for environmental impact, and balances weight and performance. It comes in muted colors that blend in with the environment.

Boating, from the standpoint of even small recreational craft, is in the realm of luxury. The X Shore 1 starts at €99,000/$139,000, value added tax excluded, with delivery beginning this year. What matters here is not about a lifestyle judgement, but offering options for a broad spectrum of the Environmentally conscious. A nod to human nature is required when moving forward with sustainability options that will be embraced.

“In order to bring electric boating to the largest possible audience, it is essential we bring to market a range of models and options to satisfy the different needs and desires of the global boating community,” CEO Jenny Keisu stated in a press release.

Her background as a lawyer, entrepreneur, investor and advisor to companies on United Nations Sustainable Development Goals means….

A BIG PIECE OF THE PUZZLE

PUZZLING IT OUT

Pushing back against climate change takes global solutions. That translates to a giant planetary puzzle of people and industries not necessarily changing what they do, but how they do it.

All of those pieces connect on a plane that rises beyond winning the battle to discovering sustainable lives that make us happier and healthier.

Around the world, small boats, typically outfitted with outboard motors, are at the heart of numerous industries, from fishing to tourism; embedded in cultures and often a main method of transportation. Think multi-island nations, like Tigre,Argentina,only 20 miles from bustling Buenos Aires, but a transportation world away with boats plying the waters around its hundreds of tiny islands in the Paraná Delta. And cities like Venice, Stockholm and St. Petersburg, with their massive canal engineering feats.

In Amsterdam, 165 canals, totaling more than 100 kilometers (about 62 miles), far surpass its 330km (205m) of roads. But you’d have to go to Cape Coral, Florida to find a record 400 miles of fresh and saltwater canals; a small boater’s paradise.

Dense use of fuel-powered motors, especially in slow-moving water bodies,causes discernable impacts to the environment, residents and industries like tourism. Boat operators may not be diligent about maintenance. Even tiny oil and fuel leaks….

POWER IN THE WAVES

FINDING THE RHYTHM

“In the silence between whisper and shout. The space between wonder and doubt.” – Rush,

‘Between The Sun And Moon’

If we were in a position to tap into the celestial mechanics of our solar system, power generation wouldn’t ever be an issue. The incredible amount of potential energy stored in the Earth’s orbit alone would power an untold number of civilizations until our Sun becomes a red giant in a few billion years.

We can’t do that, of course. But our unique placement in the solar system allows us to do the next best thing:

Tap the artifact of celestial mechanics: The tide.

It’s this side effect of celestial mechanics that we can draw upon to produce an incredible amount of power. We just need to find the right rhythm, as a species.

ADVANTAGES TO TIDAL POWER

The tides produce about 3,000 gigawatts (GW) of power. Much of that is dispersed throughout the deep, open ocean of course. Along the coast, conservatively looking at only the most promising sites, around 200 GW of power can be produced if we build out a full tidal power network.

That’s about 8% of all the energy used globally every day……

STAY IN THE LOOP

USE WATER TWICE

Water is everything. So why do we treat it like it’s nothing? We use drinking water for everything, including washing cars and flushing toilets. But we have no choice about our water source.

Or do we? Clean water solutions are taking an unexpected approach; scaling down to smaller loops in circular water use, and making the sustainable self-sustaining.

THINKING GLOBAL, ACTING LOCAL

For self-described “serial entrepreneurs,” Sabine Stuiver and her husband, Arthur Valkieser, it took the slower pace of retirement for a head-smacker of an issue to become apparent.

“We had made a successful exit, until one day, Arthur said to me, why are we still flushing our toilets with tap water?”

And just like that, retirement was over. Their vision is straightforward. Every building produces lots of slightly contaminated water, mainly from soap from washing dishes, clothes and ourselves. All that graywater is mixed with heavily contaminated toilet and kitchen wastewater, requiring an unnecessarily massive amount of energy and money to be cleaned, and allowing nature’s circular to be overcome by humankind’s linear water use.

Stuiver sums it up, “You don’t need to flush your toilet with drinking water, do you?”

Their approach to business was always about contributing to the world, but never with….

NIKOLA TESLA AND GEORGE WESTINGHOUSE

TAKING THE PLUNGE

In the final years of the 19th century, a battle that would determine the future of humanity was being waged.

This war had no battlelines, no soldiers and no treaties. This fight was being perpetrated by the most powerful inventors and business magnates of the time. The papers called it ‘The War Of the Currents.’ 

The leader of the ‘DC’ army was Thomas Edison, inventor of the phonograph and holder of countless patents for electric light and power. Heading up the ‘AC’ army was Nikola Tesla, inventor of a new type of polyphase induction motor and transformer, and holder of a myriad of patents across several engineering disciplines. 

This was not the first, nor would it be the last tech-based battle with high stakes. In the end, the winner was usually whatever technology served the populace most efficiently at the time. The War of the Currents was no exception. 

By the time 1892 rolled around, and despite smear campaigns from the DC side that included electrocuting animals and pushing for the AC electric chair to become a state-backed form of execution, the AC army was taking over. Edison’s company had been wrested from his control and forcibly merged, and J.P. Morgan engineered a deal that would strip his name from the new company, General Electric. It was determined that G.E. would mainly deal with AC generation and the creation of AC-powered devices. 

But there was one final battleground……..

ROMANS

WATER INNOVATIONS

The Roman Empire began as a small city-state in the 8th century BCE. By the 2nd century CE, it had grown into the most expansive and influential civilization in European history.

Though the empire collapsed 300 years later, we can still find evidence of Roman technological innovation throughout Europe, North Africa and the Middle East. And when you do, it's usually something to do with water. 

When they developed the Roman arch - a structure used to bridge gaps without building a solid wall - they inadvertently created the world's first dependable bridges. That incredibly sturdy, arched bridge was used throughout the empire. There’s a good chance that when you cross a bridge in a Mediterranean city today, it’s held up by a Roman foundation. 

Water was so important to the Roman Empire that they developed a wide range of innovative solutions to carry it where it was needed most. Innovations included earthen ditches to irrigate farmland and terracotta pipelines that carried water from rivers to villas and bathhouses.

The bathhouse is an iconic example of Roman water-related innovation. They were usually built over hot springs and provided a sheltered and warm place to bathe.

They were huge, but more importantly, they were useful. Which is why…..

VIKINGS

THE OPEN OCEAN

Halfway through the 8th century CE, terror landed on the shores of Northern Europe: Pagan Vikings looted monasteries, plundering villages, killing and enslaving the rest.

What terrified the Christians was not the Viking's warrior prowess, instead, it was that these Northmen seemed to appear out of nowhere, from across the open sea.

Navigating the open ocean is a tremendous feat and in 8th-century Europe, it was considered impossible. Though these Vikings appeared illiterate and uncivilized, they had mastered water as a means of transportation. That's because these Viking innovators had advanced knowledge of shipbuilding, night and daytime navigation, mapping and toolmaking.

Things start to make sense when we look at their background. The Vikings came from the Scandinavian fjords and islands. With only water to connect them to other communities, traveling by water became second nature to them.

Their vehicle of choice; the Viking longship, that could be sailed or rowed. Made from overlapping wooden slats that were riveted together,  these ships could take the brutal beating of ocean seas, and were shallow enough to travel up estuaries and rivers.

Like all new technologies, the longship needed…..

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