F1 TO BE GREEN

CHANGING THE RULES OF THE GAME

If you’re a Formula 1 fan, you’re getting set to enjoy the last couple of races of the season, no matter how anticlimactic.

Fan or not, you may not realize its supercharged open-wheel cars, which reach speeds of about 360kph (220mph) have been hybrids, for a decade now, right about the same time Formula E began competing with all-electric cars.

F1 is on a target to net-zero by 2030, not just in cars, but across operations, events, and logistics.

Take tires; a major aspect of a race and hauled by the truckload. The FIA is working on bio-sourcing and using an increasing amount of recycled materials. Teams are now limited in how many they can bring to a race, reducing shipping impacts. Drivers have to focus more on managing wear, mitigating a degree of microplastics. A ban on tire warmers may be coming, in an effort to further reduce team baggage and because of the crazy amount of electricity they use.

But it’s not just about reducing its own carbon footprint.

F1 has one hand fiercely grasping its daredevil roots. Despite its many rules, race control has famously responded to on-track incidents with “We went car racing.”

The other hand is reaching beyond the edge, and influencing the broader automotive industry’s electric technology. Still brash, yet continuously refined, this extreme sport comes down to the tiniest of margins, in design and results, and that means mountains of collected data.

In Spain, Circuit de la Comunitat Valenciana Ricardo Tormo is an on-track lab that has drawn more and more automakers. They now develop their own electric powertrains. Amazing advancements have been made in battery storage, thanks to shared knowledge.

Since the first Formula E season, the number of industry-wide EV models has increased sixfold, and battery capacity and range have improved dramatically.

What it all comes down to is the people, all innovators on that edge. No one understands teamwork better, and the need for a vast mix of solutions. I believe that’s what will take F1 solidly to its climate goals, and put it into another rare league.

I have been privileged to be a part of this world, writing and hanging out at the track with racing greats like Sir Stirling Moss, Paul Newman, Sam Posey, John Fitch, and Skip Barber, whose school has trained some of the very best.

Fitch, for instance, descended from the steamboat inventor, was a fighter pilot and the first American to race successfully in Europe. He designed cars and automotive systems. A 1955 Le Mans crash that killed a driver and more than 80 spectators inspired him to put his engineering degree to work on track and highway safety. He invented the Fitch Driver Capsule and those barrel-design, impact-absorption systems found on American highways. Fitch Barriers are based on the sand-filled fuel cans he used to protect his tent from strafing during WWII. He even crash-tested them himself.

That spirit is evident in champions like Nico Rosberg, now an eco-entrepreneur and angel investor, and Sebastian Vettel, who leaped from retirement last year into sustainability pursuits. Parlaying his popularity into awareness, he even popped up at the Japan Grand Prix in September with his “Buzzin’ Corner” on Turn 2, coaxing current drivers out to build more bee huts in his tiny habitat.

ALTERNATIVE WIND ENERGY

REDESIGNED WIND ENERGY

While people still yell ‘NIMBY!’ when it comes to wind turbines, a more efficient, less obtrusive option is on the horizon. If you thought I was going to say off-shore windfarms, you’d be close, but still half an ocean away. Starting to get the picture?

The best, most sustained winds – about 80% - are in the middle of our seas. Imagine the mega power they offer. Now imagine trying to use fixed-foundation designs in deep water. Not going to happen.

Floating wind. What a great way to describe the technology the Norwegian company, World Wide Wind is developing. It’s off and running with support from the engineering firm AF Gruppen, which will test the first prototype at their yard at Vats on the Vatsfjorgen.

Far from a propellor on a stick design, these striking turbines are aimed at harvesting the most wind power while being less expensive to build, weighing 30% less, having increased energy density and fewer impacts on the environment and wildlife, and the ability to scale to incredible energy generation.

And they float.

CEO Björn Simonsen states that offshore floating wind is poised to be “a significant contributor to the global renewable energy mix,” but needs an entirely new design.

The moving parts here are a contra-rotating, vertical-axis turbine that rises 62 feet (19 meters).

WWW’s design allows for scaling up to 40mW, compared to 2.5 to 3mW for a conventional off-shore turbine, because of a simple, yet ingenious change to a bottom-heavy setup. So, going bigger means more stability, not threatening to tip over.

Its generator, rotor, and stator are at the very bottom, well underwater, where it also provides ballast. Only mooring anchors are required. A pontoon floats at the surface, allowing two turbines, with fixed blades, to bob around and harvest torque from the wind, like a sailboat.

That means the whole thing passively tilts to the best angle to capture the wind. Its turbines rotate in opposite directions, doubling the speed at which the rotor turns the stator.

Inspired by nature, the design is perceived by birds as a natural obstacle and the low speed at the blade tip prevents bird strikes. It also reduces the wake effect, so turbines can be placed closer together.

WWW is aiming at partnerships that create local economies and simplify the supply chain. The design also incorporates recycled materials.

All of that adds up to a major, potential reduction of the Levelized Cost of Energy for offshore wind, to less than half of targets set for horizontal-axis towers. WWW is planning for a commercial launch before the end of this decade.

When we see a new level of innovation like this, ‘Wow!’ is a good initial reaction.

Are we thinking, good for them?

It’s time to start thinking, good for us. Good for the planet.

What can the rest of us do to support you?

CLIMATE MIGRATION

WHEN NATIONS TRAVEL ON PRESSURE

True story. In the mid-20th century, a man living in a coastal city did extensive research to determine the safest place to build his retirement home. He considered crime, culture, weather, natural disaster potential, and weather extremes. And, yes, rising sea levels. He was, in a way, a proactive climate refugee.

It was actually right around that time that people began being forced from their homes due to a changing planet. In the South Pacific, the Marshall Islands were the site of dozens of nuclear bomb tests by the U.S. in the 1940s and 50s. Poisonous fallout forced many to flee, but that’s another story.

It was also the beginning of a mass exodus to escape an encroaching ocean. Inhabitants fled to nearby island nations and Hawaii, and on to the mainland U.S., where about 30,000 now live. Some 42,000 remain, clinging to their shrinking homeland.

Overwhelmingly, those most impacted by climate change are the ones least responsible for impacts. We’ve all heard that. But a fast-growing segment is in places that have lost control over their environmental footprint; China, India, and the Southwest U.S. are standouts.

Across the globe, people are on the move to greener pastures, and at least 22 million have already been displaced. Where are they going? Unlike the wealthy retiree, most will be making desperate decisions.

A prime example is the northward migration from Central America. Climate warning does not bring singular challenges. It is a disruption of nature’s balance. El Nino’s cycle of drought and floods has ramped up, and food shortages are severe. Disease is on the rise. Desperate, they pack what they can carry and begin a grueling journey. For many, it will end in death, detention, or denied entry.

ProPublica and The New York Times Magazine teamed up to model the potential movement of climate refugees across international borders.

The scenarios consider how governments are responding to climate change and immigration. Those decisions may literally determine mankind’s fate. As the potential playbook goes from bad to worse, the numbers are staggering, and we don’t have to look very far ahead to find them.

According to the report;

In 2025, if people are still allowed to move fairly freely around the world, the flow of humanity will be driven by food insecurity from rural areas to big cities. Urbanization will be overwhelming. In the Americas, the wave will push steadily northward. The U.S. will see about 700,000 migrants that year, growing to 1.5 million annually by 2050.

If the U.S. turns people back, and Central America’s economic growth, predictably, slows, people will be forced back to the rural areas where the climate will be even warmer and dryer than now. Birthrates will rise and a surging population will fall into deep poverty and hunger.

It’s a scenario that could easily play out around the world.

What is the answer? It has to be about more than open or closed borders. What are the immigration policies where you live? How do they need to change (they undoubtedly do) and who will lead the way?

MAJIK WATER

ATMOSPHERIC WATER GENERATOR (HYGROSCOPY)

In the invisible humidity in the surrounding air, Beth Koigi saw an overlooked resource; drinking water.

It wasn’t random musing. While studying for a master’s in planning and project management at the University of Nairobi, she was forced to buy contaminated drinking water.

So, she created her own water filter and began selling them across her native Kenya, where more than half of the population has no access to clean water. She eventually teamed up with Clare Sewell, an Oxford economist, Malawi entrepreneur and strategy consultant, and environmental scientist Anastasia Kaschenko to launch Majik Water. Maji, in Swahili, means water. The “k” is for kukaa, which translates to “habiting.”

It was 2017, and Kenya’s now severe drought was just beginning. Koigi became a water security advocate. “We want to see a world where a woman doesn’t have to walk for four hours just to get 30 liters of water.”

At OwlVoices, we’ve been listening to innovators talk about small circles of access, especially when it comes to resources like water. Just as important is energy efficiency, or going off the grid altogether, to overcome a lack of infrastructure issues and provide disaster relief. Majik Water checks all the boxes.

Did you know there is six times as much water in the air as in all the rivers in the world?

In the lab, the three women figured out how to extract it. They took silica, exposed it to the atmosphere, then heated it in a distillation system. When the water came out of the other end, they started working on a product.

The plan was to use existing hardware and minimal energy. A solar panel was connected to a desiccant dehumidifier. They created a charcoal filter. Their first atmospheric water generator was a success, and the basis for a scalable mechanism used in small projects across Kenya, assuring that, “as long as you have air, you have water.”

In our mind’s eye, most of us envision and feel compassion for those struggling in far-flung places. In these moments, we feel lucky. But that “luck” is predicted to run out, soon.

The United Nations estimates that 1.8 billion people will be living with water scarcity by 2025, not just in isolated and undeveloped areas. Large economies like China and India are at great risk, as is much of Africa, the Middle East, and the Southwest US.

Climate change is very literal. Everything is thrown out of whack. Just as rising sea levels are already forcing people to migrate, water scarcity will create up to 700 million drought refugees, by the end of this decade.

Where are they going to go?

By 2050, water scarcity could affect five billion. Take a second and google what percentage that is of the entire world population. 

While Kenyans wait in long lines to pay high prices to have their jugs filled with precious water, the Majik Water founders understand that this is not just a local problem. Their air-to-water technology can be a solution anywhere, and the largest system they have developed, so far, can harvest up to 100,000 liters of pure drinking water in one day.

THE CLIMATE PLEDGE 4/4

AMAZON’S GREEN MISSION

If you’ve been reading the Amazon post series and wondering why drones weren’t mentioned in Air, here you go.

The plan here is to look at energy (Fire, in OwlVoices speak). Drone delivery fits into a lot of categories. Not just as a potential solution to climate impacts, but for the forward-looking vision it inspires. So, energy in every sense of the word.

It’s all up in the air right now, with only theories and limited real-time data to float at the moment. Argonne National Laboratory has been modeling efficiency of drone deliveries systems, battery-electric vehicles and diesel trucks.

Of course, drones use far less energy, that is, unless there’s wind. The lab’s study showed that in “average” wind speeds of 10mph, package-wielding drones needed 15.8% more energy that BEVs, but scored for using 73% less than diesel trucks.

But, the study was conducted in Chicago, the “Windy City,” where winds easily hit 20 miles per hour, and drones sucked up five times more energy than BEVs and 15% more than diesel haulers.

Delivery providers are chomping at the bit to be on this leading edge, probably for the business it will attract. At the moment, it’s not looking to be much of a sustainability goal, cheap or easy-to-implement. In the US, Federal Aviation Administration certification is needed, visual observers are often required and only one drone can be operated at a time.

Those are big clues as to why Amazon currently offers the service in only two cities, and only when the weather is just right.

A renewable energy transition is a bigger priority for Amazon, which is also investing in alternative fuel solutions like green hydrogen and ultra-low carbon electrofuels for delivery and operations.

Amazon’s numbers:

• It ranks #1 in the world in corporate purchasing of renewables

• In 2022, 90% of its electricity consumption came from renewable sources, putting it solidly ahead of its 2030 target of 100%

• It has initiated more than 400 new, global renewable energy projects

Long-term contracts for approaches like purchasing agreements for the same energy grids Amazon uses and participating in green tariff programs with utilities, push these projects forward and promote economic growth in communities.

More Amazon numbers:

• $12.6 billion invested globally in renewables from 2014-2022

• $5.4 billion total GDP globally in that same period

• 39,000 FTE jobs supported in 2022

• 133 new projects in 11 countries last year pushed its renewable energy capacity to more than 20 gigawatts. That is enough to power 5.3 million US homes.

We’ve considered that while Amazon is pushing toward all these targets, its footprint continues to grow. However it all shakes out, we can feel good about targets that are ... targeted.

A few years ago, I bought my first Echo, now one of a home network. Honestly, as careful as I am about energy use, I hadn’t thought about how much these devices use. But now I know that, at about that same time, Amazon committed to clean energy investments to offset the electricity used by all Echo, Fire TV, and Ring devices.

I will dig further into that later. For now, I’m just going to drink the Kool-Aid.

THE CLIMATE PLEDGE 3/4

AMAZON’S GREEN MISSION

Smarter shipping starts with smart packaging decisions. Amazon’s ML algorithms think flexibly to enable custom, right-size packages to fit individual items and optimize that for the infinite number of combinations for millions of products. No more bottles of vitamins rattling around inside a box that can hold a dozen.

It translates to fewer delivery vehicles on the road, essentially saving the air by shipping less air.

Still, that’s 110,000 gas vehicles out there, with countless others doing contracted last-mile deliveries.

In 2019, Amazon signed The Climate Pledge and committed to decarbonizing its delivery fleet. That meant electric vans, but it was “underwhelmed” by what was available or could be produced at scale. So, it invested in Rivian by ordering 100,000 custom-designed vehicles.

At the time, Jeff Bezos announced they would all be on the roads by 2024. Supply chain and other pandemic impacts pushed that ambitious target out to 2030. Still, it is in line with goals to beat global Paris Agreement targets by a decade.

Every little bit, as fast as we can get it, will help. In this case, we’re talking about the elimination of millions of metric tons of carbon per year.

In October, Amazon announced that the rollout that began in summer 2022 had reached 10,000 Rivian vans, on the job in cities across the U.S.

More than 300 were slated for Germany, as part of a fleet of thousands across Europe.

To date, Rivian vans have delivered more than 260 million packages to customers in the US alone.

If you’re hoping for a glimpse of one of the already iconic EVs, you should also keep your eyes peeled for any of the 15 other vehicle types being road-tested in the US, EU, and India. I kid you not about e-cargo bikes and e-rickshaws.

Amazon’s vehicle pickiness is about efficiency and safety, with $200 million spent this year on safety technology across its transportation network.

Not to be overlooked is the incentive electric vans are to retain and attract new drivers.

Thoughtful design allows for driver comfort, safety, and easier package organization. It eliminates the stressful start to their day; loading dozens of packages in as little as 15 allotted minutes. And while Rivians have up to double the cargo space of Amazon’s standard vans, they are small enough to not require a special license.

Driver-aimed cameras, automatic braking, and a steering wheel that shakes when the vehicle gets too close to something are bold safety moves. Cameras all around, integrated software that finds addresses, as well as parking and restrooms, and automatically zooms in as the destination nears are just as impactful. Routing and cargo-handling efficiencies mean drivers don’t have to resort to risky behavior to get their routes done. The number of accidents has already been halved.

Fewer miles logged equals fewer climate impacts because even EVs are not carbon neutral. But it’s a start.

Here’s what to watch for:

Amazon states its massive energy project investments put it on track to source 100% renewables by 2025, five years ahead of target.

THE CLIMATE PLEDGE 2/4

AMAZON’S GREEN MISSION

Continuing our look at Amazon’s sustainability efforts, remember that we are in a judgment-free zone.

I’m about to present numbers, released by Amazon. Can I prove them? Of course not. None of us can. That’s the crux of the problem when it comes to carbon targets. As an investigative journalist, I need to be an open-minded skeptic. You get it because that’s what you do when surfing the net. You know it’s all about sources and cross-checking, and still not feeling certain.

Numbers tell only part of the tale.

We have power as consumers, and marketing has a lot of power over us. What if misunderstood or malicious information prompted the masses to boycott a company that was actually on an impactful sustainability trajectory?

All I’m saying is to back out and look for unbiased analysis of a company’s progress. Nonprofits like Oceana Inc. provide that, and they hold organizations’ feet to the fire. It notes that accountability and action, in Amazon’s case, have come largely from its employees and shareholders.

Let’s consider the impacts of packaging on the Earth, and since it all overlaps, we can expand on the prior water post to get the big picture.

Oceana estimated Amazon had an 18% increase in plastic packaging from 2020 to 2021, against a 22% increase in sales. If all of those 709 million pounds were air pillows, it could safely wrap the equator 800 times. Another study estimated that 26 million pounds would end up in waterways around the globe.

There is a lot to unwrap, literally, and watchdogs dig deeper to promote transparency, such as third-party seller impact, which passed 8% this year. They make their own decisions about how to ship.

Amazon’s numbers:

• More than 2 million tons of packaging materials avoided since 2015

• Per-shipment weights reduced by an average 41% since 2015

• Since 2020, 37,150 metrics of plastic avoided, globally

Putting the numbers in perspective is hard, and keep in mind that at the same time, sales are growing 11% year-over-year in the U.S. and 16% internationally. It is clearly an uphill battle, and Amazon appears to be throwing a lot of ammunition at it.

Amazon claims a science-based approach to simplifying packaging options, using lab testing, machine learning, materials science, and manufacturing partnerships.

Among the simpler solutions are right-sized packages with materials that are curbside recyclable and partnerships across the supply chain.

That “throwback” brown paper mailer is also fairly simple. The padding is a water-based material designed to easily separate from the paper in the same way that ink and coatings are removed during the paper recycling process.

The U.S. Department of Energy’s BOTTLE Consortium and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory are working on bio-based and biodegradable plastic recycling. Amazon jumped on board last year to lend its materials scientists to the cause developing “technologies and materials that will enable the full life cycle of plastics to be net-zero carbon.”

A sort of no-brainer approach (although an algorithm is thinking) is the SIOC – Ship in Own Container – program, where a manufacturer’s perfectly adequate box is no longer dropped inside another box. For a large-screen TV, that’s nine fewer packaging components, 69% less volume, and an 87% reduction in ... air.

THE CLIMATE PLEDGE 1/4

AMAZON’S GREEN MISSION

Whether or not you are one of Amazon’s 310 million users, you’ve heard the conversations around the commerce behemoth’s innovation in sourcing and logistics, its culture, and persistent accusations of greenwashing.

It’s so hard to make an informed decision. Are any of us checking ESG risk ratings before we shop? What data can we even trust? Researcher Sustainalytics, for instance, rates Amazon a 30.6, high on a scale from 0-40+. The thing is, sustainability targets are just that; future goals and a transition journey. At the same time, we hear the dire warnings. We see climate change impacts. We want business practices to change as fast as an Amazon drone can drop a package in our front yard.

Let’s start a conversation that’s not about ranking the companies we rely on or repeating news stories. Instead, let’s look at how they influence others, because you know who does have the time and resources to check out business practices? The competition.

In 2019, with a big shove from its employees, Amazon initiated The Climate Pledge, with Global Optimism. It committed to being net-zero by 2040, a decade ahead of the Paris Agreement target, proclaiming its “scale and culture of innovation” would “help create a more sustainable future for all.”

It is also a $2 billion venture investment fund to support sustainable technologies. At the time, Forbes called it “neither a greenwash nor a game-changer,” but an important step in a transition that applies across its operations.

We’ll start with water.

Last year, Amazon committed to being water-positive, returning more water than it uses by 2030 by improving water efficiency; reusing water for cooling data centers, sending spent cooling water to farmers for irrigation, and returning 2.4 billion liters to communities through replenishment projects.

Those projects focus on water-stressed communities, where they restore watersheds to improve access, availability, and quality, and provide clean water, sanitation, and hygiene services.

Ocean impacts are being addressed with the reduction of single-use plastic and its shipping carbon footprint.

Plastic is not the worst thing for the environment. It’s the prevalence, inefficient recycling, and irresponsible disposal that send so much of it into our oceans.

You may have noticed those blue and white mailers are MIA, and may be surprised to learn that most recycling programs don’t accept them. Amazon recently upped its commitment to eliminating plastic packaging in its major markets including the U.S., the biggest market by far.

Its 2022 sustainability report shows 99% of mixed-material mailers containing plastic, used in the U.S. and Canada, have been replaced with recyclable paper alternatives. Single-use plastic across its global fulfillment centers dropped by 11.6% from 2021-22.

Here’s another perspective.

That’s more than 11 million metric tons, or 25 million pounds.

Its Global Mile team has contracted with Maersk ECO Delivery, loading shipping containers onto the first methanol-enabled cargo ship for its maiden voyage, with up to 95% lower emissions. Amazon is part of the Zero Emission Maritime Buyers Alliance (ZEMBA), intending to accelerate access to decarbonized ocean shipping.

ENERGY OBSERVER

MEETS SOUTHWESTERN AFRICA, NAMIBIA

On the Southwest coast of Africa, Namibia finds itself in a distinct position. Political stability, since gaining independence from South Africa in 1990, a cool climate, and about 300 long days of sunshine per year add up the potential to not only meet its own energy needs but be a leading exporter of green hydrogen by 2030.

That is not just ambitious. It’s a major evolution from importing nearly 60% of its electricity, at lightning speed.

It was the last stop on the continent for Energy Observer, a journey we began following with our inaugural issue. Plying the seas for seven years, the solar panel-covered, wind turbine-equipped floating laboratory is an ambassador for ecological transition. It is emission-free, running on decarbonized hydrogen it makes onboard from seawater.

EO founder and captain, Victorien Erussard, and his crew were on a mission to check out a massive desalination plant in Erongo, built by French company, Orano.

The country is mineral-rich, so, lots of mining. But lots of sunshine means little rain and scarce freshwater, which the industry monopolizes.

The 20 million cubic meters of desalinated water produced per annum are just meeting the demand of mines and communities. Orano reserves the right to expand to more than double capacity.

A giant reverse osmosis plant raised a red flag. It got us to thinking about NONA Technologies, the Cambridge, Massachusetts company we profiled in our Water issue. It uses solar-powered ion concentration polarization to reduce the complexity and energy consumption of the desalination process.

It is scalable, and in a country perfect for solar energy, is it a better solution?

Maybe, but change can’t always begin on the leading edge. With so many immediate issues to solve, a plan that starts with and evolves from known technology may be the ticket to success. Transformation is never linear.

Remember that 60% imported electricity? It comes from coal-fired power plants in neighboring countries. That’s what’s used for the seawater pumps in Erongo. It sounds like a cringe-worthy future in the making, but Namibia has a lot on the drawing board.

Orano is already building a solar power plant as the first step in decarbonizing operations.

HDF Energy is developing a solar power plant that will use multimegawatt green hydrogen fuel cells to pick up the slack of energy production from photovoltaics.

Cleanergy Solutions Namibia is constructing a 10-hectare solar park and a hydrogen production facility that will include a five-megawatt electrolyzer; a first in Southern Africa. The green hydrogen it produces directly from solar will be available to the public.

Hyphen Energy is working to produce an eventual 350,000 tons of green hydrogen each year, along with up to 6 GW of renewable generation and 3 GW of electrolysis capacity.

Daures Green Hydrogen Village is poised to produce 31 tons of hydrogen and 109 tons of ammonia per year, with the goal of scaling.

At Namibia’s commercial port, located on the South Atlantic shipping lanes, a low-carbon fuels terminal is planned.

Now that’s a much brighter picture. Erussard came away optimistic, noting that with its population of only 2.5 million – and remarkable ambitions - Namibia’s energy autonomy and new hydrogen industry goals appear achievable.

PANAMA CANAL DROUGHT 3/3

QUADRUPLE TROUBLE DUE TO INCREASING TRUCKING IN THE U.S.

Is the water crisis in the Panama Canal just the beginning of a tale of a swirling vortex of compounding climate change issues? We will be here to tell it?

No apologies for the drama.

Sit rep: The number of ship passages and cargo weights have been reduced, again, as the water supply is rationed at the critical shipping route. Twenty years of drought have taken their toll in one of the wettestplaces on earth. No relief is in sight.

The series of locks that provide the needed control in the narrow passage between two oceans were built more than a century ago to connect Asia with the east coast of the U.S. At the time, the plan was simply to create a shorter, safer route. But cutting thousands of miles from each journey inadvertently curtailed massive amounts of emissions.

It also increased our appetite for global trade. Economies of scale meant inexpensive goods, not just for consumers, but manufacturers across the U.S. who built price points and profit margins on the back of cheap components.

It all worked. About 90% of trade remains over the waves. That’s a good thing for the air.

According to the International Chamber of Shipping, a container ship, stacked high with up to 24,000 TEUs (twenty-foot equivalent unit), with nearly 50,000 pounds of dry cargo in each, emits an average of 30 grams of CO2/ton. A heavy goods vehicle, or tractor trailer, emits 140 grams of CO2/ton.

That means that a shipping container’s voyage from China to Europe produces the same emissions as a truck hauling that same container only 200 kilometers.

Startling statistics like that offer a clue of the potential impacts of ships diverting from Panama to unload on the U.S.’s Pacific coast, where containers will travel via diesel-powered truck and rail across the country.

Maybe predictions that the drought in Panama will extend into next year, and possibly beyond, will be wrong. Maybe the now-obvious stresses on our planet will shake more of us awake to the threats. Or we’ll stop aiming at preserving life as we know it, and come up with a better plan. So many maybes, and to be fair, most of us are stuck, looking for guidance from vague government policies.

Some of you are doing amazing stuff on the edge that can move us forward. We see you, and we’re here to give you a voice. You are looking for, and finding, solutions in the right places, and that work within the bigger picture. Climate solutions are taking the shape of small circles. Carbon-negative waste-to-energy reactors built where alternative fuels are used, water used twice within a home, boat fuel produced from seawater while underway.

Companies are making bold moves to tighten up their sourcing radius, hedging against future supply chain issues and diplomatic tensions. In the first half of this year, Chinese imports into the U.S. were down 24% from the same period in 2022, indicating a trend toward producing goods closer to customers.

More small circles.

PANAMA CANAL DROUGHT 2/3

WHEN A MAJOR SHIP TRAFFIC JAM HITS THE ROAD

It’s not hard to imagine a shortage of anything anymore. We’ve all been there. And if the pandemic taught us anything, it’s the vulnerability of our supply chain. Most of us are neither willing nor able to be self-sustainable, or do without.

I’ll say it again - we have dug ourselves a deep, and now problematic, hole of dependence on global trade. Off-shore sourcing used to make sense. And just as we were coming out of logistical grid lock, finding solutions in fast-tracked automation, drought tipped the vital Panama Canal into crisis mode. No relief is in sight.

Faster shipping, lower prices, and somewhere in its 109-year history, the realization of a major reduction in environmental impacts, with 8,000 miles shaved off a global trade route.

So, what are we looking at as the canal reduces capacity to preserve water supplies?

What if it closes?

Don’t expect to see massive container ships plying the treacherous Cape Horn route, adding risk, and weeks, to their journeys. Plan B is playing out primarily in the U.S., where over-the-road shipping is poised to pick up some of the slack.

About 73% of goods eastbound through the canal are headed to U.S. ports, to be distributed mainly along the densely populated eastern seaboard. Ships are now starting to divert to west coast ports, to offload onto trains and trucks (mostly) for a 3,000 mile, cross-country trek.

The spotlight will be on economic impacts, but the thought of the increase in emissions is horrifying.

Let’s do a little math. We’re talking about 9,800 ships annually. Each carries up to 24,000 20-foot containers. That’s 235 million in total, or well over 100 million tandem tractor trailer loads.

Of course, western ports could not handle that entire volume, but impacts could still be catastrophic – not just emissions, but to the aging road infrastructure, traffic volumes and quality of life.

Also consider that there are fewer than three million tractor trailers on the road, which also begs the question of the viability of Plan B.

What will Plan C, D, etc., look like?

Here’s a for instance. In Mexico, the government is working on a $2.8 billion plan to reactivate a century-old rail line at the shortest point between its coasts. It’s capacity is estimated at only 10% of goods that make the canal trek, but that can mean a full schedule of, at best, a mix of diesel and electric locomotives.

The country is calling it a long-term climate change strategy. Good intentions and self-regulation aside, like many countries, Mexico has a comprehensive framework of environmental regulations, but struggles to enforce them. Sustainable Governance Indicators scores it 4.4/10 on its overall environmental stance. The U.S. scores a 5.3.

There are lots of scenarios to unpack, and not all are potentially negative.

What if this leads us, as the pandemic did, to thinking differently, and more urgently?

Stoppages in production of products requiring semiconductors, among them cars, electronics, renewable energy, health care equipment - prompted a rethink about the benefits of importing those and other components.

Are smaller circles now the answer?

PANAMA CANAL DROUGHT 1/3

FIRST SIGNS OF CLIMATE MEGA IMPACT ON GLOBAL SHIPPING

The iconic shortcut of the Panama Canal was about convenience, but became an environmental solution ahead of its time. Now, it is falling victim to climate change issues it organically pushed back against.

The manmade cut through the narrow Isthmus of Panama was an obvious choice, not just for the 8,000 miles it cut from trade routes. As a rainforest region and the fifth wettest country, Panama’s watershed system provides the massive amounts of freshwater needed to fill canal locks.

Maintaining water levels in Lake Gatun, which feeds the locks, was not a problem when the canal opened in 1914, or for much of a century that followed. As ships grew in size and number to feed global supply chain demand, increasing capacity became a priority. Vessels with towering stacks of cargo containers were making the passage with as little as five feet of clearance on either side, threatening safety and the structure itself. A critical expansion project was completed in 2017.

A trip through now requires up to 55 million gallons of fresh water, not returned to the lake, butwashed out to sea with each ship. That’s an enormous draw on natural resources, but was workable, until; an epic drought.

After two decades of dry conditions, the last rainy season set off new alarms when it failed to doit’s usual job of refilling the lake. In August, average vessel wait times increased by about half, with hundreds of ships lined up at both ends for an average of nine days.

Since 2016, the Autoridad del Canal de Panamá – the Panama Canal Authority - has issued reactive draft restrictions, reducing allowed cargo weights to ration water. It’s down to only 32 vessels every 24 hours.Blame the triple whammy of the naturally occurring El Niño climate pattern, climate warming and rainfall 30-50% below normal. The last two years are the driest in the 143 years Panama hasbeen keeping track. And Gatun Lake is evaporating faster than ever in the rising heat.

In the last 25 years, major El Niño events have risen significantly – to the point where authorities are having unprecedented discussions about turning the largest ships away.

And what if the canal were to shut down completely?

We’ve dug ourselves a deep hole in our appetite for and dependence on global trade. The supply chain issues of the COVID-19 pandemic were a wake up call for everyone, from consumers unable to buy toilet paper to manufacturers scrambling for semiconductors. That crisis rolled over into the next oneIn terms of timing, this seems like a smaller version of the climate change crisis.

Can we enact enough change quickly enough to avoid major catastrophe?

Is the solution in the trend toward smaller resource circles?